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خشكسالي زنگ خطر هميشگي* متخصص كشاورزي: مجموعه‌اي از آثار مخرب بي‌برنامگي در مقابله با خشكسالي ايجاد شده است


يك متخصص اقتصاد كشاورزي گفت: در راس مسائل مربوط به مقابله با خشكسالي، «امنيت غذايي» به عنوان يكي از اهداف كلان برنامه‌هاي اقتصادي مطرح است

دكتر محمود دانشور كاخكي در گفت‌وگو با خبرنگار كشاورزي خبرگزاري دانشجويان ايران(ايسنا)، با بيان اينكه براي بررسي پديده خشكسالي بايد به ماهيت توليد كشاورزي توجه كرد، گفت: بخش كشاورزي در مقايسه با ساير بخش‌هاي اقتصادي داراي يك ماهيت ويژه است. به اين دليل كه اين بخش به شدت ريسك‌پذير و توليد كشاورزي همواره از پديده ريسك و خطر برخوردار است.

وي افزود: براي مقابله با ريسك‌ها و خطرها، اقتصاد كشاورزي ابزار مناسبي است، به اين شكل كه اقتصاد كشاورزي و مباني و مفاهيم آن به دو شكل در مقابله با مسائل ريسك و از جمله خشكسالي عمل مي‌كند. ابتدا به شناخت پديده خشكسالي و نهايتا مقابله با اين پديده كه نوسان آثار ريسك است، كمك مي‌كند.

دانشور تاكيد كرد: بهترين راه براي مقابله با پديده خشكسالي در قالب برنامه‌هاي بلند، ميان و كوتاه مدت اين است كه توليد كشاورزي را در قالب مفاهيم ومباني اقتصاد كشاورزي تعريف و برنامه‌ريزي كنيم و يقينا بر اين اساس مواجهه با سيكل‌هاي خشكسالي و دوره‌هاي بلند مدت آن آثار و زيان‌هاي كمتري دارد.

وي تصريح كرد: از جمله تدابيري كه مي‌توان براي مقابله با خشكسالي در نظر گرفت اتخاذ سياست‌هاي حمايتي است، چرا كه سياست‌هاي كشاورزي به دو شكل اعمال مي شود. يكي در جهت ماهيت و يكي در جهت اهداف است.

دانشور همچنين گفت: در نوع اهداف، سياست‌هاي كشاورزي به سه شكل سياست‌هاي حمايتي، بنيادي و بازاريابي است كه در حقيقت مجموعه‌اي از اين سه نوع سياست‌ها مي‌تواند آثار ريسك‌ها و از جمله پديده خشكسالي را به حداقل خود برساند و در ميان اين سياست‌ها، سياست‌هاي حمايتي و در راس آن‌ها سياست‌هاي قيمت و قيمت‌گذاري يكي از بهترين ابزارها براي مقابله با نوسانات بخش كشاورزي و حاصل از پديده ريسك است كه بيشتر در بحث عرضه و قيمت محصولاتي است كه توليد كننده و مصرف كننده در نتيجه پديده خشكسالي دچار ضربه مي‌شوند.

وي افزود: سياست‌هاي حمايتي از جمله قيمت‌گذاري مي‌تواند نرخ رشد توليد كشاورزي را تثبيت كند و به يك درجه خوبي برساند و در نهايت در آمد كشاورزان را به حداكثر خود برساند و در نهايت مطلوبيت مصرف‌كنندگان فراهم مي‌شود. ولي بحث سياست‌هاي حمايتي به شكلي نيست كه در حين وقوع پديده خطر يا ريسك بتوان از آن استفاده كرد.

دانشور اضافه كرد: قبل از وقوع پديده‌هايي نظير خشكسالي بايد تمهيدات لازم سنجيده شود تا آثار اين پديده به حداقل خود برسد. بنابراين در ابتداي برنامه 5 ساله چهارم بايد به اين مساله توجه مي‌شد كه در آينده با پديده خشكسالي مواجه هستيم، از اين رو بايد مكانيزم‌هاي قيمت و قيمت گذاري مناسب را براي زيربخش‌هاي مختلف كشاورزي نظير توليدات زراعي، باغباني، جنگل و شيلات و آبزيان در قالب سياست‌هاي مجزا تعريف و براي دوره‌هاي بلند، ميان و كوتاه مدت به مرحله‌ي اجرا گذاشته مي‌شد تا نهايتا بتوانيم با اجراي آن سياست‌ها و مكانيزم‌ها اين آثار را به حداقل خود برسانيم.

وي با بيان اينكه دو نوع ابزار و نظام برنامه‌ريزي براي بخش كشاورزي وجود دارد، گفت: در بخش كشاورزي با شرايط خاصي مواجه هستيم. از يك طرف وابستگي شديد به پديده اقتصاد نفت كه ما را در مقابل شوك‌هاي آني و سريع قرار مي‌دهد و از سويي ديگر به دليل رشد فزاينده و نرخ بالاي رشد جمعيت، لزوم برنامه‌ريزي و اتخاذ سياست‌هاي اصولي در بخش كشاورزي مضاعف مي‌شود.

دانشور همچنين گفت: كليد حل مشكل خشكسالي و مقابله با اين مشكل در دست برنامه ريزان اقتصاد كشاورزي قرار دارد. چون در اين شرايط نمي توان اقدامات فني انجام داد. اما در قالب برنامه‌هاي نرم افزاري از قبيل سياست‌هاي كشاورزي بايد بتوانيم از آن‌ها بهره‌ بگيريم.

وي درباره زيان‌هاي ناشي از بي‌برنامگي مقابله با خشكسالي گفت: اين زيان‌ها شامل افزايش ضريب وابستگي، كاهش نرخ رشد توليد، كاهش سطح درآمد توليدكنندگان، كاهش انگيزه و در نهايت كاهش سهم بخش كشاورزي و ارزش‌ افزوده كشاورزي در درآمد ملي است و در نهايت بحث كاهش مطلوبيت مصرف‌كنندگان رخ مي‌دهد.

اين متخصص اقتصاد كشاورزي يادآور شد: در حال حاضر مجموعه‌اي از آثار مخرب بي‌برنامگي در مقابله با خشكسالي ايجاد شده و اگر اكنون با نرخ رشد فزاينده قيمت محصولات كشاورزي مواجه هستيم، يكي از آثار پديده‌هاي مربوط به ريسك و خطر از جمله خشكسالي است كه در دوره‌هاي گذشته نتوانسته‌ايم به خوبي تمهيدات لازم را بينديشيم. امروزه اين آثار تجلي پيدا كرده و به سرعت قيمت‌هاي محصولات كشاورزي و فرآورده‌هاي اين بخش در حال افزايش است كه هم به زيان توليد كننده است و گردش نقدي را در اين بخش كم مي‌كند و هم به ضرر مصرف‌كنندگان است كه قدرت خريد آن‌ها را به شدت كاهش مي‌دهد.




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Thanks so much for checking out Bangkok! This is one of our fartvioe places. The next time you go back, check out their grocery store too. There is a surprising amount of variety there and the prices are reasonable. Also, have you considered checking out some of the Greek restaurants around town? There's a good onein Pickerington on 256 south of 70 (left side if your headed South) and also on North Hamilton Road, north of Morse.

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